A flood watch was issued for Texas Hill Country on Monday, following a weekend of consecutive flood watches and increased rainfall. On Sunday, the region experienced another severe flood event, with water levels in the Lampasas River rising by 30 feet. Several areas received between 8 and 10 inches of rainfall on Saturday evening and continued into Sunday.
In the past few weeks, Texas has experienced a series of intense weather events. During the July Fourth weekend, extreme flash floods caused at least 129 fatalities in Central Texas, with over 170 individuals still missing. The prolonged period of stagnant downpours resulted in sporadic accumulations of 12 to 15 inches of rainfall.
Following the initial deadly floods, search operations for the missing individuals were suspended on Sunday. The forecast predicts further flooding, highlighting the persistent waterlogged conditions in Texas. The county has received more than 12 flash flood warnings in just July, underscoring the frequency of storms in the region.
Since July 1st, certain regions of Central Texas have experienced rainfall exceeding 16 inches. Notably, Menard, Texas, has accumulated 16.45 inches of precipitation. Additionally, on May 26th, Menard was subjected to hail with a diameter reaching 5.91 inches. Mason, Texas, has recorded 14.67 inches of rainfall for the current month, while a weather station situated north of Burnet, Texas, has recorded 17.92 inches.
A significant portion of the precipitation has been diverted into the Guadalupe, San Saba, Llano, Lampasas, and Colorado rivers, resulting in recurrent flooding events.
The persistent rainfall persisted on Monday, with flood watches extended into the evening hours. Thunderstorms were developing along a stationary, decaying frontal boundary during the morning hours, and it is anticipated that storms will expand in area coverage and intensity during the afternoon. As of 9:00 a.m. local time, several flood warnings and flash flood warnings were already in effect.
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) was also observed on satellite ascending northward from Coahuila, Mexico. This vortex is essentially a weak atmospheric swirl that originated from dissipated storms over Mexico from Sunday. The MCV will induce the air preceding it to rise, resulting in increased precipitation and thunderstorms in Texas on Monday afternoon.
By evening, an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated, with localized totals reaching 7 to 9 inches.
The Frio River, located downstream from Dry Frio east of Uvalde, is forecasted to surge by 18 feet. The flow rate will significantly increase from 70 cubic feet per second to 46,700 cubic feet per second, representing a 667-fold rise. This surge is sufficient to fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool every 1.9 seconds.
When will the rains finally cease?
By Tuesday, there is only a low probability of isolated showers or thunderstorms. It appears that Wednesday and beyond will be entirely dry. This indicates an extended period of more stable weather following two weeks of flooding rains.
The family of Camp Mystic co-director Richard “Dick” Eastland asserts that he received an alert regarding “life-threatening flash flooding” on his mobile device at 1:14 a.m. on July 4th, approximately one hour prior to the commencement of the evacuation of young campers. A family spokesperson confirmed this information to CNN.
The National Weather Service’s alert specifically warned of “life-threatening flash flooding” in Texas’ Kerr County, which encompasses the location of the all-girls camp within a flood zone. Notably, the alert did not include an evacuation order.
Eastland, who had been the director of Camp Mystic for several decades in collaboration with his wife, promptly initiated an assessment of the situation following the receipt of the warning. In the process, he communicated with family members via walkie-talkie.
According to Jeff Carr, a family spokesperson, the relocation of campers to the recreation hall commenced between 2:00 a.m. and 2:30 a.m. based on observations of river conditions. However, Carr emphasized that there was no available information regarding the severity of the impending situation.
Carr underscored that Camp leaders promptly responded to alerts as they had consistently done in the past, relying on the data available to them at the time.
The Washington Post initially reported on the precise timing of when Eastland received the alert and when evacuations commenced.
Subsequently, the National Weather Service issued a more severe warning for Kerr County at 4:03 a.m.: “Evacuate to higher ground immediately! This is an extremely hazardous and life-threatening situation.”
Only a few people spoke during the public comment portion at the Kerr County Commissioners meeting, the first since the deadly Texas flooding on July 4.
Most comments praised local leaders and first responders, while some residents raised questions about the county’s rebuilding efforts.
Ann Carr expressed her pride in the community and thanked the commissioners, police department, and first responders. She also wanted the county to drain a lake near her home after seeing the Guadalupe River flood.
John Rivenburgh, a local entrepreneur, shared his losses due to the flooding and asked about financial assistance for local businesses. He also expressed concern about looters and asked about protection.
Christine Pugh, the final speaker, described her remarks as a “statement of appreciation.” She got emotional, saying the tragic event had proven humanity’s greatness. She prayed for the affected families and thanked Kerr County for its kindness and love.